MAIN WAVE COUNT : POSSIBLE TOP

HSIF gap up today reaching 23135. We can see a poossible 5 waves structured finished.
See  calculations:-
1/- Wave 1=22022-21306=716
wave 4 =22417
projected wave 5=22417+716=23133
2/- projected wave 3=22072-21595=477x1.618+22007=22778 +/-3 pts
3/- wave 5of 5 is 1.618 of wave 1 of 5

china's market shows weakness compared with global recovery. Today's top has its technical implication.

We decide to take at least 50% of profit.and buy back after correction finished. Any price above 23160 (hsif) and 2255 (shicom) should regard this prediction damn wrong.

REMINDER: THIS WEEK IS THE 233TH WEEK OF AUG 2008 LOW

TOO ATTRACTIVE ! what do you think?

SHICOM BOTTOMED ?

2444-2259=185 POINTS
2351-185=2166 TODAY'S LOW

Buying 22200 call under 150 now

Buying again now at 22040 if stopped at 22139.

Minimal April Target 22800

HSIF Gaps up today that traps all Guys expecting for a down side. This force will not stop until this sinking force surrendered. We expect minimum target of April will be at least 22797. It will be conifirmed if today's gap not being filled within today. Late comers will use a few points below 22139 (upper side of the Gap) as protective stop.
Happy Trading

Day buy

Target 22000-22200

Buying Range:21610-21664

Stop:21580

Critical Moment

market has come to its critical moment.
It touches important trendlnes originated from 18-2-2018. Best to break this trendlines with a gap up!!

Looking for a rebound

See this calculations:-
1/- 24000- 22364=1636x0.786=1286-23241=21955
2/- 24000-18649=5351x0.382=2044-24000=21956
3/- 23482-22364=1119x1.382=1119-23483=21936
4/- 24000-22364x1.27-24000=21922

US futures over-reacted.
It could be an important low
Low of today already in, BUY!

SEE ORDERS IN THE CHAOS

TRADING RANGE OF 18-3-2013
22213/22243/22283
22449/22513/22600

TYPICAL C=0.618 OF A

LOSING TRADE OF TODAY AND PLAN FOR TOMORROW

Re 12/3/2013 15:24 post--Buy 22880, putting stop 22850, Target 23050.
This trade caused a  lost of 30 points.
Background of trade.
1/- Day closes of the previous two days are above 23050 which is regarded by me as a breakthrough of an uptrend.
2/- One five waves structured of 873 points originated from 22368 was completed topped at 23241 which length of wave 1 equals to wave 5 and 1.382 of the former wave (23001-22364=637x38.2%=243+23001=23244 +/- 3 pts.) A deeper correction was anticipated.
But to my opinion , this finished wave was only a 3-1 wave, only one part of the whole 3rd wave.
3/- 22857 is the intersecting point of the Black and Green Trendlines.
4/- we hoped that, after a rapid intraday correction, it would go back to 23050 once again making 3 days in a row.
Unfortunately, we failed the trade but our lost was limited with a protective stop.

Tomorrow, we will buy again if the open is not lower than today's low 22791.
Trading Range: 23050--22791 = 259
Buying Range: 259/5+22791=<22843 p="">Happy Trading

buy 22880 stop 22850 Target 23050

Illustrated later

USD/Yen Topping?

Yen maybe topping out tonight.
Calculations as belows:-
1/- 82.82-77.10=5.72x2.618=14.97+81.69=96.66
2/- 84.17-76=8.17+88.03=96.20
3/- 84.17-76=8.17x2.382=19.46+77.10=96.56
4/- 84.47-75.54=8.63x2.236=19.29+77.10=96.39
5/- 82.82-77.10=5.72+91.06=96.78
Average=96.66+96.20+96.56+96.39+96.78/5=482.59/96.518

Target:91.06/88.03/86.9/84.6
Stop: 97.50

Happy Trading

6-3-2013 HSIF TRADING PLAN

Today's top is 22733 and it can be easily calculated with wave's target projection formula. (see illustration).Its too early to say market bottomed, however, up momentum was not interrupted by the afternoon's corrections. . Today's close stays above the Average Pivot of the last 3 day is 22564 (22645+22476+22573/3) and its also well above all supporting trend lines and channel. The chance of double bottom (22364 & 22368) is still good. Our Target of tomorrow is 22770 and 22895.
We prefer to buy if index fall in between 22480 and 22540.
Happy Trading

Simplest way to find recent HSI top: 23944.74

Simplest way to find recent top: 23944.74

We can calculated by adding up the 4 biggest accumulated Volume Levels in our weekly charts and divided by 4 as shown below:-
30405
23758
21017
20603
                                                                                                        95783/4= 23945.75                                                                                          
JUST FOR FUN:>P
玩得唔Trade得, hehe
Don't be serious!                                                                    
                                                                                                     

REASONABLE REBOUND

新增說明文字

Attached charts intend to give a clearer picture  showing reasons why a low could be formed in terms of  Fib. Ratios, Wave counts , trendlines and time element.

1/- C is more or less 1.236 of A=24000-23081=(919X1.236)-23480=22344

2/- time of correction of A=34 hours
 time of correction of B&C=89 hours, 89 is 2.618 of 34and both are Fib. Nos.

3/- For extended C wave, Wave 1 (218)=Wave 5 (218)
     22581-218=22363 (1=5)

4/- Recent low 22364 touch neckline of big head & shoulder bottom, an intermediate trendline and an adjusted Gann fans touching most of tops & bottoms.

No one knows where the bottom would be but at least we still  have some tactics to rely upon. As we can see from the charts that  a H & S top formed with its neckline almost the same level as 61.8% rebound of Wave C=23057. Any day close above this level would regard as correction finished.
Happy Trading

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Euro did find some support here, will tension in the stock market be released. Some stocks with higher yield eg. 3988 refused to follow market down.

EURO ANALYSIS

US & European Markets crash today but Euro looks stable giving me a sense of divergence. Euro is entering a cluster of  reversal time & Price target zone.  See how US market react after European Stock market closed !

EVERY CLOUD HAS A SILVER LINING

TIME ANALYSIS OF FUTURES HOURLY CHART

1/- 121x1.786=218 or 117+101

2/- 84+37+117X0.786=187 or 101+84=185 +/-2

3/- 84x3.618=303.9
or 117+101+84=302 +/- 2

4/- 21764 TO 20444=84 HRS
     21244 TO 18448= 84 HRS

Continue buying, FINAL STOP PLACES AT 18300.

OBSERVES 18600/18559/18378/18337 DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RISK YOU ARE GOING TO TAKE.

CAN I DRAW LIKE THIS?

Market over reacted, sure yes!
We prefer buying at this point.
Reason:
1/- we draw the channel as attached chart, its still above the bottom line today.
2/- It had reached  from top to  50% or 66%  rectracement level (21764-16139/21764-17568)
3/ if ABC correction, C if 1.27 of A
4/- today is the 58th day (93x0.618=57.47 days)

Intraday wave count

Prefered wave count & Ratios

If market open above 19460, short term buy using 19420 as stop.

IDEAL WAVE COUNT FOR AN UPTREND

EURO SHORT-TERM BOTTOMED

Euro forms a descending triangle with a false break of bottom line equal to 1.145(0.618x0.618x0.618x0.618) of D.

STOP IF NOT CLOSE ABOVE 20500

Market gaps down this morning hitting our stops at 20650 and 20500. (stop #1 and stop#2).
We will close all positions if hsif can't close above 20500.

Fibonacci daycount behind ordinary trendlines!

Nikkei and Yen broke their   recent lows this morning appearing that it will bring markets further down. But after intensive studies, we discover that the market will hold at these supporting trendlines. And those trendlines are not only drawn by connecting high(s) or low(s) but all being of  fibonacci time series important.
Interesting figure as belows:-


1/- Red line =203 days
or
406/2=203


2/- green line 411
or
233x1.764=411 days

3/- blue line=154 days
or
406 x 0.382=155 days +/-1

4/- upper channel line =101
or
406/4=101.5

5/- lower channel line=109
or
173 x0.618=107 days +/-2 days

We are happy to find that and eager to share with someone who likes this blog.
Linked or reproduced are welcomed but please respect writer's endeavour  by  giving  credit to this blog.

Enjoy!

2038: BULLISH CRAB PATTERN ?

2038: BULLISH CRAB PATTERN ?
BOTTOMED ?

388 50 PERCENT PRICE AND TIME

#388 50 PERCENT PRICE AND TIME

Wave 1=wave 5

May Futures Chart is more informative than Continous Chart

Maybe you can get a different interpretation  from a May Chart.
Its more bearish in a continuous Chart.

Think Big !

Market did stop near 20127 (19993) level and ended  close to our targeted period :mid of April (11/4). Once markets' sentiments is too bearish, contrarian theory applied.
Market momentum is still building up after all those scaring news eg. Euro or china economy. Complex head & shoulders formed. Pullback to NK is finished heading to 24,000 . Chart may also look like Rising Wedge with first and second Zigzag 4068/4196 respectively. If the amplitude of the  third Zigzag the same, market will easily reach 24000+.
No matter what, market will inevitably up.  We suggest to hold portfolio aiming at 24,000. Time  will be in Mid of July or early August.
Forecast is only based on assumptions and with certain constraints. Put your protective stop by  using Stop #1 & #2 trendlines.
Happy Trading!

BUY WHEN MARKET DIPPED

Hsif rebounded last week closing at its highest level of the week. Clearly one five waves structure is finished with fib.ratio quite matched. 1st wave = 5th wave both 172 pts. and target of wave 5 is 4.236 times of wave 1. See whether fib. rectracement targetS hold. Whats interesting is that 0.382 is just fallen withIN upward channel. 50% level is the area of neckline. 0.618 is the trendline.
Therefore BUY WHEN DIPPED.

TAIWAN RETRACEMENT FINISHED ?

TAIWAN RETRACEMENT FINISHED ?

50% OF PRICE AND 38% OF TIME

Shanghai (SHICOM) Critical Low ?

Shanghai index has reached its critical month 54months or 55 months inclusive. Lets see how this important low be formed.

Performances of competitors of chinese local banks in China.

Minister Wan said business is so easy for chinese local banks. Yes, sooner or later they have to face competition of foreign banks as their participations are  growing . We can see a buying chance for leading foreign bank here.

Consider to settle all short positions near 20172

Consider to settle  all short positions near 20172

or buy if open stay above 20362 .

DON'T BE OVER-PESSIMISTIC !

Reasons:-
1/- Retracement level is still within our predicted/acceptable price zone which is still above 20172 indicating it would still be wave 4 (fell to the area of minor wave4 of previous wave 3 or 0.382 level.)

2/- 3-3-5 retracements could be finished unless price broke rectangular pattern resulting in deeper corrections.

3/- low:17568 from 25-11-2011  to top: 21764 of 20-2-2012 is just 55 days.
0.618 of 55 day is 34 days. And today is the 33th day.

4/- Retracement peroids of 25-11-2011 to 9-1-2012 and 20-2-2012 to 30-3-2012 tends to be  identical: 29 days unless 20360 is being broken.

5/- recover half of our short position now and settle all positions and think of  possible upside strategies  if price closed above 20550.

6/- there is no exact correlations between US/Europe/Asian markets. A crumble  in the US is not necessarily mean a fall in other markets. It varies from time to time. (please refer to" who is the boss" of this  blog.


Happy Trading.

SUPPLEMENT