388 50 PERCENT PRICE AND TIME

#388 50 PERCENT PRICE AND TIME

Wave 1=wave 5

May Futures Chart is more informative than Continous Chart

Maybe you can get a different interpretation  from a May Chart.
Its more bearish in a continuous Chart.

Think Big !

Market did stop near 20127 (19993) level and ended  close to our targeted period :mid of April (11/4). Once markets' sentiments is too bearish, contrarian theory applied.
Market momentum is still building up after all those scaring news eg. Euro or china economy. Complex head & shoulders formed. Pullback to NK is finished heading to 24,000 . Chart may also look like Rising Wedge with first and second Zigzag 4068/4196 respectively. If the amplitude of the  third Zigzag the same, market will easily reach 24000+.
No matter what, market will inevitably up.  We suggest to hold portfolio aiming at 24,000. Time  will be in Mid of July or early August.
Forecast is only based on assumptions and with certain constraints. Put your protective stop by  using Stop #1 & #2 trendlines.
Happy Trading!

BUY WHEN MARKET DIPPED

Hsif rebounded last week closing at its highest level of the week. Clearly one five waves structure is finished with fib.ratio quite matched. 1st wave = 5th wave both 172 pts. and target of wave 5 is 4.236 times of wave 1. See whether fib. rectracement targetS hold. Whats interesting is that 0.382 is just fallen withIN upward channel. 50% level is the area of neckline. 0.618 is the trendline.
Therefore BUY WHEN DIPPED.

TAIWAN RETRACEMENT FINISHED ?

TAIWAN RETRACEMENT FINISHED ?

50% OF PRICE AND 38% OF TIME

Shanghai (SHICOM) Critical Low ?

Shanghai index has reached its critical month 54months or 55 months inclusive. Lets see how this important low be formed.

Performances of competitors of chinese local banks in China.

Minister Wan said business is so easy for chinese local banks. Yes, sooner or later they have to face competition of foreign banks as their participations are  growing . We can see a buying chance for leading foreign bank here.

Consider to settle all short positions near 20172

Consider to settle  all short positions near 20172

or buy if open stay above 20362 .

DON'T BE OVER-PESSIMISTIC !

Reasons:-
1/- Retracement level is still within our predicted/acceptable price zone which is still above 20172 indicating it would still be wave 4 (fell to the area of minor wave4 of previous wave 3 or 0.382 level.)

2/- 3-3-5 retracements could be finished unless price broke rectangular pattern resulting in deeper corrections.

3/- low:17568 from 25-11-2011  to top: 21764 of 20-2-2012 is just 55 days.
0.618 of 55 day is 34 days. And today is the 33th day.

4/- Retracement peroids of 25-11-2011 to 9-1-2012 and 20-2-2012 to 30-3-2012 tends to be  identical: 29 days unless 20360 is being broken.

5/- recover half of our short position now and settle all positions and think of  possible upside strategies  if price closed above 20550.

6/- there is no exact correlations between US/Europe/Asian markets. A crumble  in the US is not necessarily mean a fall in other markets. It varies from time to time. (please refer to" who is the boss" of this  blog.


Happy Trading.