WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Euro did find some support here, will tension in the stock market be released. Some stocks with higher yield eg. 3988 refused to follow market down.

EURO ANALYSIS

US & European Markets crash today but Euro looks stable giving me a sense of divergence. Euro is entering a cluster of  reversal time & Price target zone.  See how US market react after European Stock market closed !

EVERY CLOUD HAS A SILVER LINING

TIME ANALYSIS OF FUTURES HOURLY CHART

1/- 121x1.786=218 or 117+101

2/- 84+37+117X0.786=187 or 101+84=185 +/-2

3/- 84x3.618=303.9
or 117+101+84=302 +/- 2

4/- 21764 TO 20444=84 HRS
     21244 TO 18448= 84 HRS

Continue buying, FINAL STOP PLACES AT 18300.

OBSERVES 18600/18559/18378/18337 DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RISK YOU ARE GOING TO TAKE.

CAN I DRAW LIKE THIS?

Market over reacted, sure yes!
We prefer buying at this point.
Reason:
1/- we draw the channel as attached chart, its still above the bottom line today.
2/- It had reached  from top to  50% or 66%  rectracement level (21764-16139/21764-17568)
3/ if ABC correction, C if 1.27 of A
4/- today is the 58th day (93x0.618=57.47 days)

Intraday wave count

Prefered wave count & Ratios

If market open above 19460, short term buy using 19420 as stop.

IDEAL WAVE COUNT FOR AN UPTREND

EURO SHORT-TERM BOTTOMED

Euro forms a descending triangle with a false break of bottom line equal to 1.145(0.618x0.618x0.618x0.618) of D.

STOP IF NOT CLOSE ABOVE 20500

Market gaps down this morning hitting our stops at 20650 and 20500. (stop #1 and stop#2).
We will close all positions if hsif can't close above 20500.

Fibonacci daycount behind ordinary trendlines!

Nikkei and Yen broke their   recent lows this morning appearing that it will bring markets further down. But after intensive studies, we discover that the market will hold at these supporting trendlines. And those trendlines are not only drawn by connecting high(s) or low(s) but all being of  fibonacci time series important.
Interesting figure as belows:-


1/- Red line =203 days
or
406/2=203


2/- green line 411
or
233x1.764=411 days

3/- blue line=154 days
or
406 x 0.382=155 days +/-1

4/- upper channel line =101
or
406/4=101.5

5/- lower channel line=109
or
173 x0.618=107 days +/-2 days

We are happy to find that and eager to share with someone who likes this blog.
Linked or reproduced are welcomed but please respect writer's endeavour  by  giving  credit to this blog.

Enjoy!

2038: BULLISH CRAB PATTERN ?

2038: BULLISH CRAB PATTERN ?
BOTTOMED ?

388 50 PERCENT PRICE AND TIME

#388 50 PERCENT PRICE AND TIME

Wave 1=wave 5

May Futures Chart is more informative than Continous Chart

Maybe you can get a different interpretation  from a May Chart.
Its more bearish in a continuous Chart.

Think Big !

Market did stop near 20127 (19993) level and ended  close to our targeted period :mid of April (11/4). Once markets' sentiments is too bearish, contrarian theory applied.
Market momentum is still building up after all those scaring news eg. Euro or china economy. Complex head & shoulders formed. Pullback to NK is finished heading to 24,000 . Chart may also look like Rising Wedge with first and second Zigzag 4068/4196 respectively. If the amplitude of the  third Zigzag the same, market will easily reach 24000+.
No matter what, market will inevitably up.  We suggest to hold portfolio aiming at 24,000. Time  will be in Mid of July or early August.
Forecast is only based on assumptions and with certain constraints. Put your protective stop by  using Stop #1 & #2 trendlines.
Happy Trading!

BUY WHEN MARKET DIPPED

Hsif rebounded last week closing at its highest level of the week. Clearly one five waves structure is finished with fib.ratio quite matched. 1st wave = 5th wave both 172 pts. and target of wave 5 is 4.236 times of wave 1. See whether fib. rectracement targetS hold. Whats interesting is that 0.382 is just fallen withIN upward channel. 50% level is the area of neckline. 0.618 is the trendline.
Therefore BUY WHEN DIPPED.

TAIWAN RETRACEMENT FINISHED ?

TAIWAN RETRACEMENT FINISHED ?

50% OF PRICE AND 38% OF TIME

Shanghai (SHICOM) Critical Low ?

Shanghai index has reached its critical month 54months or 55 months inclusive. Lets see how this important low be formed.

Performances of competitors of chinese local banks in China.

Minister Wan said business is so easy for chinese local banks. Yes, sooner or later they have to face competition of foreign banks as their participations are  growing . We can see a buying chance for leading foreign bank here.

Consider to settle all short positions near 20172

Consider to settle  all short positions near 20172

or buy if open stay above 20362 .

DON'T BE OVER-PESSIMISTIC !

Reasons:-
1/- Retracement level is still within our predicted/acceptable price zone which is still above 20172 indicating it would still be wave 4 (fell to the area of minor wave4 of previous wave 3 or 0.382 level.)

2/- 3-3-5 retracements could be finished unless price broke rectangular pattern resulting in deeper corrections.

3/- low:17568 from 25-11-2011  to top: 21764 of 20-2-2012 is just 55 days.
0.618 of 55 day is 34 days. And today is the 33th day.

4/- Retracement peroids of 25-11-2011 to 9-1-2012 and 20-2-2012 to 30-3-2012 tends to be  identical: 29 days unless 20360 is being broken.

5/- recover half of our short position now and settle all positions and think of  possible upside strategies  if price closed above 20550.

6/- there is no exact correlations between US/Europe/Asian markets. A crumble  in the US is not necessarily mean a fall in other markets. It varies from time to time. (please refer to" who is the boss" of this  blog.


Happy Trading.

SUPPLEMENT

SHANGHAI, SHANGHAI !

3-3-5?

NIKKEI CATCHING UP

CAUGHT THE LAST TRAIN FOR THE COAST, THE DAY  THE MUSIC DIED .....

WILL RETRACEMENT CONTINUE?

It seems that the market is forming a head & shoulder top. 2 left shoulders 21130 & 21008 or averaged shoulder 21130+21008/2=21069. Short position should hold until downward channels being broken. Select Green, blue or red channels as
stop according to how much risk you're going to take.
For timing, I think its still early to say rectracement is finished. Mid point of 45 days cycles is15th or 16th of March.

Another Way to look at the market

Another Way to look at the market

服膺市場，謀定後動.

The market is always right !

Time analysis and wave count of HSI Futures

TARGETS:
1/- 21574-17778=3796
0.236=20678
0.382=20123

2/- or recent lows=20700 or 20172

Recession Peroid till mid of April

WHO IS THE BOSS?

MKT HIGH LOW RECENT HIGH  DATE DOWN POINT DOWN      %   UP  POINT UP % REBOUND %  DOWN   DAY UP DAYS  DAY     UP % DAX 7600 4965 6837  16/2/2012   2635.00 34.67  1872.00 37.70 71.04 96 111 115.63 DJIA 12876  10404 12917 9/2/2012  2472.00 19.20  2513.00 24.15 101.66 108 88 81.48 CHINA 3186 2133 2374 15/2/2012  1053.00 33.05 241.00 11.30 22.89 284 23 8.10 JAPAN 10891 8135 9371 17/2/2012 2756.00 25.31 1236.00 15.19 44.85 236 56 23.73 KOREA 2231 1644 2031 17/2/2012 587.00 26.31 387.00 23.54 65.93 102 102 100.00 FTSE 6105 4791 5920 16/2/2012 1314.00 21.52 1129.00 23.57 85.92 116 133 114.66 HKG 24946  16139 21574 17/2/2012 8807.00 35.30 5435.00 33.68 61.71 224 91 40.63 T.WAN 9220 6609 8013 17/2/2012  2611.00 28.32 1404.00 21.24 53.77 217 57 26.27

                                                                                                                                       

TEST2: USING VOL LEVEL TO PREDICT TARGETS

BOTH 1.618 AND 2.618 BEING HIT

SHORT HS FUTURES PUTTING STOP AT 21700

Today's Pivot of Major Asian Markets

                     Pivot           2:04PM

Shanghai   2358           2348
Szicom       920             919
Taiwan        7972           7869
Nikkei         9227           9238
Korea         2020            1997

Prices at 2:04PM 16-2-2012

It seems that pnly Nikkei can close above Pivot. Lets observe other markets.

Bullish Gartley

Bullish Gartley?

Thanks Yam Sir for inspirations.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gartley.asp#axzz1mF2GomWm

Hope not " 畫虎不成反類犬"

TEST 1: USING HUGE VOLUME LEVEL TO PREDICT PRICE TARGET

TEST 1:
USING HUGE VOLUME LEVEL TO PREDICT PRICE TARGET

We can get few targets easily by using fib.ruler.You may find these  levels match with targets obtained by simple charting technics.
1/- 1.618 level = short term upward trendline.
2/- 2.618 = previous top

3/- 4.236 = filled last gap

Try to compare performance of Huge vol. top/bottom  with  simple top/bottom to find target.

Happy Trading.

亞爺, ARE YOU ALRIGHT?

生／死，通知聲呀，唔該 !!
 唔通真喺要問亞星！

 亞星老老土土, 木口木面,眼金金咁對住個天講:  冥冥中自有主宰 ! !
?????

SEE HOW PRICE REACTS TO TIME

See how price reacts to time.

time:
1/- 8+3+6=17x2.618=44.5
or 8+8+9+3+17=45 (green)

2/- 8x3.618=29
or 9+3+17=29 (blue)

Charts

Market momentum is weakening but still up. touching the top side of the channel. Measuring target of Head and shoulder  is reached. Intermarkets bearish divergences exist.

HSBC: ONE 5 WAVES UP IS FINISHED

HSBC: ONE 5 WAVES UP IS FINISHED
Wave 1=60.85-58.55=2.31
2.31x2.618+60.85=66.89
or
wave 1 =2.31
wave 5=2.31+ 64.55 (wave 4 bottom)=66.86

CORRECTIONS CONTINUED

Market gapped up today but it will not stop market's corrective moves.
It seems that market is still in forming a irregular wave4 (minor)
a=20686-20172=434
b=434x1.236+20172=20708
or
20571-20172=399 +20287=20686
We are expecting a minor flat c aiming at 20100 or an irregular  c bringing market deeper down to 19000+.


In addition, room of going up is limited unless corrections is  done. 

無題-5

無題-4