INVISIBLE HANDS

A rise of continued 16 straight weeks, Amazing !
Not only that but ...
To control the weekly range at 300+ points, what a coincidence !
Its time to leak some air before the bubble explode.
Baby must learn how to walk, right?
Let the market to stand at her own feet.
Pay attention to when this range of the week changed.

See how fib. ratio use to forecast price target

Market topped out on 12th June at 19100. A close below 17500 level or a breach of green upwards trendline indicate correction started. First target 16000+ and second target is 14000+.

BACK TO REALITY

Today's HSIF topped at 17979.
Head & shoulders' target points to 20,000+. Very optimistic, right?
To my opinion, economic condition of the next quarter has been totally reflected. Its time for investors to see whether anticipated recovery comes or not.
17979 - Could it be a top also in June & July?
My prime wave count shows that it is.
Wave 1 of the new bull market was already finished on the 11 of May at 17556 and retraced to 16202 to finish a of A on 18 May. Then it rebound to today's high 17979 to make b of A. c will bring market down to at least 16,000. The whole correction will target near 14,000. Duration 21-34 days hopefully on 23-7-09.
Well to notice is that July is the 21st
Month of Oct-07 Top. June is a month for profit taking.

END OF WAVE 1

HSIF made a new high since last October to 17155 together with huge vol. of 100B contributed by late comers and massive crowd. As the mass is always wrong, so its a good time to apply the contrary theory.
In term of wave counts, today's top
might be the end of a 5 waves up (5830 pts) expecting a correction to
14,000 is possible.
For alternative wave count, a 335 regular flat is finished and just up to the area of minor wave 4 of 3. The wave 5 of C will bring market to new low.
Personally, I strongly believe that 10565 was a low to this bear market. I would like to buy again at 14000+.
Good Luck

SARS'S REVIEW

The whole period started from 18-2-03 when the first news of Sars victim was announced to the launching of government rescue package on 25-4-03 lasted 57 trading days with a drop of 15.78% to 8332. Before that the market had been dropping 161 weeks from 18396 recorded on 26-3-2000 to 8332 for 55%.
Interested to note:-
1/- from 28-10-07 31958 to now is only 79 weeks as compared to 161 weeks.
2/- from 31958 to 10676 dropped 67%
3/- Sars happened at the latter stage of correction and after that a big rally brought hsi to 14000 record high.
Outbreak of Swine Flu outcasts any optimistic outlook and we expect for a deeper correction to come.

STRONG SUPPORT AT 15000+, ACCUMULATE HERE!

HSIF holds well above 15000+. maybe we have to think whether market did make a low on 22-4 at 14794 by finishing an abcxabc. A Triangle or flat irregular might be formed to expand the length time of wave 4 or just starting of another rally from 14800 to 16600+. Any level exceed 16600 should think of wave 3 got extended.
Accumlate here and put call stop at 14800.

Change your stop at 15500

Market seems to consolidate at this range 15000-15500 formating a triangle.
Change your stop at 15500

SHORT TERM HSIF Target 14200 to 14600

Market might open a bit higher today. Sell if you see 15500 again targeting 14200-14600 and put all stops on 15880.

Dow seems favourable to our side, relax !

Its has been so tortured to call a top as blow off and gap down seems to come a bit late. Now Dow is favored to our side, down more than 200 points.
Sleep early and be relaxed. See our trading plan fulfilled.
Good Night!

SELL WHEN MARKET CLOSED BELOW 15500

Market has been so volatile intraday
despite of some good news. Stocks are heavily traded but closed inch higher.
We expect for a correction wave 4 would come possibly target around minor wave 4 of 3 14200 and then proceed to wave 5 finishing big wave 1. Correction will last more than a week after labor day.
If correction exceed far below 14200, then we have to think of
either: one 5 waves of 1 is finished and
market will retrace as much as to 12300-13000.
or : Bear market resumed. Market has just finished a abcxabc which 1st abc: c=0.786 of a and 2nd abc : c=a, quite fib. match!

NEED A GAP DOWN ?

Blow off finally come this morning together with huge volume of more than 70B. in these two days. 15B was recorded in the first 30 mins which bring HSIF down from 15981 to 15483 keeping this low almost for the rest of the day. To activate a deeper correction, a big gap down or a breach of 14800 support is a must.
if a broke of 15483 tomorrow signify
a test of 14800.
Anyway, our position is quite healthy (at least I myself believed to be and it differs from one another) awaiting for a chance to buy at 14000+.

ALL MY BAGS ARE PACKED AND READY TO GO !

HSIF closes at highest level today and it starts to fell within our target price & time range. It seems that it've already finished a minor wave 5 of wave 5 of 3. I will retreat 50% of my position if market open flat of lower tomorrow or
finish selling at any point below 15761.
A stay firmly above at 16100 level early next week or a broke of hsbc's 56.15 should regard as my view wrong.
Happy Trading !

HSBC is forming a short-term top.

HSBC GAP DOWN MORE THAN 2% THIS MORNING SHOWING WEAKNESS TO REBOUND. WE MIGHT LOOK FOR A 10% CORRECTION AT LEAST ALTHOUGH HSIF HASN'T CONFIRMED A TOP YET.

13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144.... SEE THESE NUMBERS THAT CAUSED A CHANGE IN THE MARKET !

Please help me to look for some more!!

LOOKING FOR A BLOW OFF !!

Market momentum is still strong but we have to watch out reversal due. Following correction might be 1500 points minimum. But this correction
helps to build a larger head & shoulders with measurable objective to 20,000+ within this year.
Something worth to note that Wave C as we believed is 118 days. We spent 50 days to make 3 waves up and 40 days to make 3 waves down.
We are so eager to see how to use 28 days; relatively short time to make
5 waves up to 15000+ level.
Someone told me that 118 days is very important in Bible. I don't know but its important to me at least. Its a kind of satisfaction and psychological accomplishment if this really work out. I got paid of my study done.
Possible ideal short-term price target will be 15761 and time target will be 17-4 to 21-4 in order to keep everything orderly.
118=50+40+28
(50+40)/118=0.764
118x0.236=28
17-4 Venus turns direct
21-4 Mar conjunct Venus
see whether these phenomenon act as
a coolant or catalyst to this crazy
market. Good Luck !

HSBC AND BRITISH POUND BE IMAGINATIVE !!

Recently HSBC has been highly correlated with trend of Pound. Both forms a head & shoulder bottom.

Speculative buying :-

HSI Futures 14000-14050 stop 13950 TARGET 15400 +/-100
ideal time - April 17 09
stay above 14730 regards as safety level for long holidays and also confirm corrections finished.

HSBC 46.50-48 STOP 45.90 TARGET=74.00 +/-1.50

POUND 1.455-1.46 STOP1.4435
TARGET 1.57-1.585

This is act of "stealing chicken", be careful!!

LOCKED YOUR PROFIT WHEN SHORT TERM CYCLE HIGH DUE,

Market & HSBC open higher today and we did not enter the market for short as planned. But personally, seeing hsbc traded below 50.85, I bought HSBC put warrant even its not confirm by HSF. Needless to say, its being stopped out within 15 min. Poor me!! Being taught of no disclipine again. A wedge is forming and a broke confirms correction started.
Since short-term target met (please refer to 26-3-09 blog) , its time to take some of our stake out .
we'll not wonder to see a retracement of 7-10 trading days to 14200 or even deeper if a 5 waves up is to be finished. 12100-11325=775 and 15110-14335=775

A B O V E TURN!! SEE THIS CRITICAL MONDAY

We might see a possible short-term reversal here. I will recover at least 1/3 of my position if monday HSF and HSBC open flat or lower.
If it really happened, we can tolerate 2 weeks retracement or until April 17 without interrupting our long term target.

CYCLES STUDIES CAN BE AS SIMPLE AS THIS !

ITS TIME TO LOOK FOR UNDER-VALUED STOCK AGAIN

488 AND 571 ARE READY TO START OFF AFTER 0.618 RETRACEMENT.
ENTER IF YOU SEE VOLUME INCREASED.
FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELT PLEASE !!